Wizard Weygint's Pac-12 Analysis & Commentary (2015)

North Division

Oregon (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

A gallon of gas was $1.40 the last time Nike U. finished under .500 against the spread.  Since that time (2002) they’re a scintillating 93-59. Cindy Lauper nailed it…. “Money Changes Everything.” Speaking of eclectic dames, Lady Luck has set up shop in Eugene to the tune of +77 turnovers the last 5 years. That stat leaves the bell curve in its dust and can be predominantly explained by the female proclivity for the coin.  Not surprisingly, Ms. Luck has no relocation plans in 2015, which steals some of Oregon’s play against value, but there are plenty of reasons to believe the dirty hippies will disappoint at the wagering window.

Most compelling is the fact that in 2014 the Quack finished last in the Pac 12 in 3^rd down stops and surrendered 475 or more yards in six games. Granted, two of those were in the playoffs vs Fla. St and Ohio St but no matter the opponent, that’s a crap ton of yards, and the loss of lock down CB Ekpre-Olomu won’t help matters. Given what some could perceive as a knock on feminism in the previous paragraph, the Wiz will reluctantly spare you his thoughts on hyphenated last names, but can’t help but mention that Oregon is among the nation’s younger teams which further explains why Lady Luck, a self-proclaimed milf, stays on the Eugene scene.

With key losses at QB and along the OL, the offense will have trouble compensating for the softish “D” and more importantly, trouble covering the lofty imposts assigned to the Quack on a near-weekly basis.  The last time the Ducks were a regular season dog (2011), they violated Stanford in Palo Alto 53-30 as 3.5 point pooches which just happens to be the same spread this Saturday (9/12/15) as they travel to East Lansing.  Pick your spots wagering against the Ducks, like when they play the much improved kerchief heads in Boulder, and your bankroll will thank you.

Washington (Underrated relative to public perception)

From the get-go, the Wiz read Tyrone Willingscam’s neuroses like a dime store novel but must confess his usually spot-on Spidey senses were faked out of their jock when Sark made the Seattle scene.  Said senses can be given a one-time mulligan as Satan himself would’ve been a welcome change in the aftermath of the Willingsham disaster. In the storied annals of college football coaching, were there ever two bigger back-to-back shysters than the Willingsham/Sark combo?

As noted in Wiz’s 2013 Pac-12 analysis, Sarkisian’s namby pamby, no accountability style played well with the lefty locals but robbed the Huskies of the discipline and sense of urgency needed to ascend beyond mediocre. The mainstream media spew the fallacy that the 2014 Huskies should’ve been a Pac-12 title contender with their several “superstars” but a peek behind the curtain reveals that 1^st team All-American Shaq Thompson and other supposed superstar John Timu combined for three tackles for loss and one sack (that’s not a misprint). A further peek reveals that the 2014 purple and gold had more in-fighting than the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills. By the way, Camille and Adrienne are back this year.

Chris Petersen used year #1 at the helm to cleanse the program of the cliques and prima donna vibe bred by his predecessor, and contrary to prevailing belief, the Huskies’ 8-6 (7-7 against the number) record is a testament to his success, not failure. As Aristotle taught us, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts and the 2015 Huskies have that in spades, which provides ample opportunity to enhance the bankroll as the Wiz did in week #1 with UW’s double digit cover as 13.5 dogs on the blue turf.

Stanford (Jibes relative to public perception)

The smug look perpetually plastered on the face of head coach David Shaw is growing old, especially in moments like last Saturday when he punts on 4^th and four at Northwestern’s 37 yard line; needless to say the punt sailed into the end zone.

Last year’s 8-5 finish snapped a 4-year streak of 11 or more wins. That in combo with a just three starters back on defense has the soiled masses thinking this will be another middling year in Silicon Valley. Sharps like the Wiz look behind the curtain, which reveals some value-laden nuggets:

• All five 2015 losses were against top 25 teams and three of those were by a FG.
• Last year’s D gave up an almost unheard of 4.2 yards per play…compare that to the likes of      defensive heavy hitters Ohio St (5.0), Alabama (4.9) and TCU (4.7)
• Tree finished 2014 on a roll going 3-0 SU and ATS while winning by an average of 22 ppg.

That said, QB Hogan plays more like Sergeant Shultz than his namesake, the venerable Colonel Hogan who in real life was a sex junkie with a dressing room that was porn central. He was bludgeoned to death in his swanky Scottsdale apartment in the summer of 1978, the same summer that your humble handicapper found his Anheuser Busch beer drinking stride, downing a six-pack or more all but 3 or 4 nights. Damn those were some great times…….

Cal (Underrated relative to public perception)

Cloaked behind the Bears’ 2014 5-7 record is the fact they held their own in losses to Oregon, UCLA and USC. In oft-magical year #3 at the helm, Sonny Dykes has the nation’s third most experienced team that returns 12 of its top 13 tacklers and an under the radar Heisman candidate QB.

The Wiz grades all but the special teams improved going into 2015 and boldly predicts a win/cover in Texas in game #3 which figures to light a fire under Cal’s notoriously fickle fans.  Get on the Bears before their coveted value is exposed.

Wazzu (No assessment)

Mike Leach has officially jumped the shark into full-time loon land which yields crazy good quotes and top-notch yuks but little value at the wagering window (4-9 against the number in 2014). Wazzu’s 24-17 home opening loss to Portland State as 31-point chalk underscores he’s better suited for the ivory tower than the gridiron. The Wiz is no stranger to way out there behavior as he spent the first 1/3 of his life futilely trying to handicap his dad’s behavior so he’ll pass on trying to predict that which cannot be predicted.

Oregon State (Jibes relative to public perception)

While no longer the spring chicken of his yesteryear, the Wiz still loves riding himself some beaver but can muster nary a loper when it cums to the 2015 Oregon State squad. Mike Riley left the cupboard barer than porno pussy with two starters back on D, and QBs with zero collegiate pass attempts. 

The Beavers are being featured this season on the Pac 12 Network’s documentary show “The Drive” which steals their attention away from where it should be….on the gridiron. The previous three teams featured on said show picked bettors pockets to the tune of 14-25 against the spread including last year’s UCLA squad that went 5-8 against the number.

With expectations so low, veteran Wiz followers may think he’d find some value with this year’s Beav, but with a first-year head coach of an ultra green team playing up to the cameras, the Wiz knows there’s no fertility to be found in Corvallis this year.

South Division

USC (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

Not surprising that master manipulator Steve Suckesian blamed mixing meds and alcohol for his widely publicized buffoonish behavior at a booster event last month. Even if it were true that he was popping prescription meds, anyone who can’t handle a few drinks and a couple pills is a candy ass pure and simple.

Said dearth of manhood explains why his talent-laden teams are notoriously unpredictable and prone to underachieving, illustrated by last year’s loss to outmanned Boston College in which the Trojans surrendered a mind-blowing 452 rushing yards. See the Husky write-up above for further commentary on sad sack Sark.

Despite the Spoiled Children’s 6-3 2014 conference record, they were only +23.6 yards per game vs. their Pac-12 brethren and +9 in turnovers. Like most seasons, the 2015 Trojans are the smokin’ hot chick who gives 22% in the sack and brings her A game only when in the mood. After taking that bait a few times early in his illustrious career, the Wiz long since quit fishin’ them waters.

UCLA (Jibes relative to public perception)

With 18 starters back including the Pac 12’s leading rusher and 131 returning OL starts (#1 in the NCAA), the Bruins are the fashionable pick by many to win the Pac-12 and make the playoffs. While rookie gamblers will include UCLA on all their parlay cards, the Wiz knows starting QB’s a few months removed from high school rarely flourish under bright lights and lofty expectations. 

While consensus #1 frosh QB Rosen may be the real deal, the Wiz ain’t gonna pay to find out. With 127 other FBS team from which to seek opportunity, the Wiz shall do just that and lay off Bruin games until established patterns emerge.

Arizona State (Overrated relative to public perception)

Having cashed in week #1 fading the Devils vs. A&M, the wily Wiz plans on doing likewise throughout the season. As the media and the soiled masses latch onto the 16 returning starters and 10-3 record in 2014, those rare few like the Wiz, who slave over a hot handicapping stove for hours on end, extract nuggets like:

• Despite going 6-3 last year in Pac-12 play, ASU was -15 yards per game!!!
• Last year’s team also was the beneficiary of +14 turnovers.
• Head coach Todd Graham has the game day savvy of a potted plant.
• Senior QB Bercovici is career single strapper who only in his dewiest of dreams could shed the strap and become a true superstar like Ric Flair or Dusty Rhodes.

A moment of silence please for the recent passing of three of rasslin’s brightest stars Dusty Rhodes, Mad Dog Vachon and Roddy Piper.  St. Peter undoubtedly ushered them into heaven’s squared circle with ice cold Buds and lovely ladies at their beck and call.  

Utah (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

The Wizard’s 2014 bankroll plumped up like a John Holmes chode courtesy of playing the Utes early and often enroute to a lucrative 9-4 cover clip.  With 2015’s elevated expectations, last year’s value has gone the way of an aging Hollywood starlet, leaving the Wiz singing a much different tune in 2015.

Utah was last in the Pac-12 in total offense in 2014 and a mind blowing -84 yards per game yet still finished 5-4 in the Pac-12 and 9-4 overall.  The loss of consensus All-American DE Orchard is huge and the continued erratic QB play gives one reason to pause.  So very rare to see the Wiz not sing the praises of a team with a hot D, all-world specs and one of the nation’s best RBs, but the Utes are now playing the unfamiliar role of the hunted and that more often than not portends pointspread poison.

Arizona (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

Only six returning senior starters, in concert with last season’s 10-4 record that masked several deficiencies, has the Wiz tabbing the desert dwellers a tad overrated. A whopping 129 career OL starts were lost to graduation from a 2014 team that was -4.4 yards in conference play and benefitted from +8 turnovers.  

The Wildcats were exposed in their last two games of the season as Oregon dismantled them in the Pac 12 title game and an overrated Boise State team was up 21-0 enroute to a 38-20 win in the Fiesta Bowl.

Colorado (Underrated relative to public perception)

Continuing with the money changes everything theme, the Buffs are in year #1 of major facility upgrades courtesy of their deep pocketed, left leaning east coast donor base whose kids hit the vape a bit too hard to get into Ivy League schools so opt for Boulder, a stoner’s wettest dream. Is it any wonder that Colorado’s recruiting classes are markedly improved since the state legalized weed a couple years ago? 

Free-flowing THC in concert with tricked out facilities and a cavalcade of smokin’ hot babes, many of the comely Jewish persuasion, make CU a major player in courting the best but not necessarily the brightest.

The following further add to the allure of the 2015 squad:

• The 2014 Buffs lost more starts to injury than all but a few teams and most of the fallen return in 2015.
• Despite their 0-9 record in the Pac-12, last year’s team was only -50.9 yards per game in conference play which was better than three other teams.
• The Wiz grades each position as improved over last year, which is very rare.

Yes the Buffs failed to cover in last week’s loss vs. Hawaii but that simply adds value as the Bows capitalized on turnovers while totaling 75 fewer total yards than the kerchief heads.