Wizard Weygint's 2017 Mountain West Preseason Analysis

Overrated

Wyoming

·       Pretender ‘Pokes playing in the 2016 MWC championship game belies the fact they were -19.5 net yards per game in conference play and -261 net yards on the season.

·       Wiz loves few things more than fading teams like Wyoming that are now the hunted after years of ineptitude (15-33 record the previous 4 seasons).

·       Projected NFL 1^st rounder QB Josh Allen is a Jake Browning-like paper tiger. When stepping up in class he wilts like a chode off back-to-back jizzes as illustrated by his six picks vs. Nebraska last year.

·       Speaking of jizz, specs blow wad and the top 3 receivers depart, as does their all conference center.

·       Pokes are the Wiz’s #1 fade team in 2017!

New Mexico

·       Like Wyoming, their 6-2 conference record last season belies the fact they were a meager +6.2 net yards in MWC action.

·       Just three returning starters back on defense with a paltry 39% of their 2016 tacklers returning.

·       Bob Davie’s IQ hovers slightly above room temp.

·       Off a deceiving 9-4 2016, and an equally deceiving bowl win where they were outgained by 70 yards, expectations will be high which has the Lobos high on the Wiz’s 2017 fade list.

Slightly Overrated

Air Farce

·       Massive attrition in Falconland with one returning starter on D, a measly 42 returning offensive line starts, and the loss of a rare NFL caliber WR.

·       Farce only +5 net yards per game in conference play while going 5-3.

·       Despite said attrition, coming off a 10-3 2016 campaign and a 24-point bowl win, expectations are still be a bit higher than justified.

San Diego Steak

·       Coming off a 10-3 2016 and a 24-point bowl win as 4-point pooches vs. Houston, expectations are high and the preseason pundits are buying into it, but Wiz pulls back the curtain and knows better.

·       Just one starter returns on the offensive line and two time All-American RB Pumphrey is now playing on Sundays.

·       Aztecs an absurd +36 turnovers the last two seasons and they lost just 15 starters to injury last year so Lady Luck due to take a big, greasy dump on them.

·       SDS among the least experienced teams in the country (#115).

San Hose Me

·       Wiz tabs the Spartans slightly overrated not because of inflated expectations (4-8 2016), but because they have a new head coach who has never led a team, a 28 year old first time offensive coordinator, and a first time defensive coordinator.

Underrated

Utah Steak

·       Aggies went 3-9 in 2016 but amazingly were just -43 net yards on the season and +2.6 net yards in conference play despite going 1-7.

·       Speaking of value, Utah Steak 4-13 their last 17 with seven losses by a TD or less including four blown 4^th quarter leads.

·       Having faced 8 bowl teams last season, they’re battle tested for 2017.

·       Wiz will play the Aggies early and often this season.

Boise Steak

·       Broncs started 2016 going 7-0 but were upset by Wyoming and lost their last two including an embarrassing bowl performance, so they finished unranked and thus find themselves in rare “under the radar” status.

·       Wiz no stranger to padding his wallet with upper echelon teams like Boise State in a rare no-love preseason scenarios.

·       Adding value is in 2016 they allowed 13 TDs after getting a 17-point or more 4^th quarter lead.

Fresno Steak

·       Jeff Tedford taking over the helm and few coaches have padded the Wiz’s wallet more than he (Bill Snyder a notable exception.)

·       Off a worst ever 1-11 campaign, expectations will be ultra low, which is deep in Tedford’s wheelhouse.

Slightly Underrated

Colorado Steak

·       While seeing nothing special value wise in the traditional Wiz sense, with their new $220 million stadium that’s right on campus, the Lambs find themselves in Wiz’s slightly underrated column.

·       Third year coaching staff with the 22^nd most experienced team in the country.

Rainbows

·       Bows an unheard of -31 turnovers the last two seasons, so look for Lady Luck to set up shop on some swanky Waikiki beach in 2017.

·       Coaches in oft-magical year #2 and got rare bowl practices last season (first since 2010).

Jibes with Public Perception

Nevada

·       First year coaches installing new off and def schemes.

·       Average home attendance last season a meager 18,000.

UNLV

·       Defense greener than April in Seattle with two returning starters.

·       Rebs 2016 QBs combined for the nation’s lowest completion percentage (49%).

·       As you can see, not much going on in the state of Nevada for the Wiz in 2017.

Wizard Weygint's 2017 AAC Preseason Analysis

Overrated

USF

·       Charlie Strong couldn’t coach his way out of a brown paper bag so returning 16 starters from an 11-2 2016 ain’t turning Wizard’s head.

·       Despite said record, Bulls were only +379 net yards on the season vs. a lackluster slate of opponents.

·       USF +19 turnovers last two years so look for Lady Luck to take her wares somewhere besides Tampa in 2017.

·       New def coordinator is their fourth in as many years.

Navy

·       Middies’ 9-5 straight up 2016 record belies the fact they were only +60 net yards on the season.

·       Huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions.

Slightly Overrated

Temple

·       Like Navy, huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions. Unlike Navy, a redshirt frosh is slated to start at QB.

·       First year coach in his first head coaching gig portends trouble as does the loss of 5 of the top 6 tacklers.

·       Expectations will be high on the heels of back to back 10-4 seasons and leading the nation last year with a 12-2 spread record.

Tulsa

·       Coming off a 10-3 record in 2016, and back to back 8-5 spread performances, expectations will be higher than justified.

·       Ultra green QBs.

·       Top two receivers are gone, as are 3 of the top 4 tacklers.

Memphis

·        One of several AAC teams with coaches in oft-magical year #2. 

·       Tigers the 6^th most experienced team in the country.

·       All world specs in concert with a vet QB and 103 off. line starts is a comely combo.

·       That said, the defense is on the sucky side and expectations are higher than justified.

Underrated

East Carolina

·       Pirates were -16 turnovers last year which provides 2017 value.

·       Providing even more value is the fact they went 3-9 SU last year but were +172 net yards….that’s some serious value.

·       Second year coach Montgomery in oft-magical year #2.

·       Off the 3-9 season in which they were an equally bad 3-8-1 ATS, expectations will be subterranean.

SMU

·       Stangs lost a whopping 16% of starters to injury in 2016, and it’s no secret that W.W. loves playing teams off injury-riddled campaigns.

·       Tenth most experienced team in the country.

·       Providing further value is their 5-7 record last year in which they played most of the big boys toe to toe.

Tulane (not TooLame this year)

·       Ten of top 13 tacklers return from a solid 2016 defense.

·       Coaching staff in year #2 with a JUCO transfer QB who perfectly fits the spread option attack.

·       Despite a 4-8 2016 record, the Wave were only -277 net yards and outgained their foes in three losses including +60 yards at Houston.

Slightly Underrated

UCF

·       Soph QB Milton is undersized (5’11” and 170) but head coach Scott Frost super high on him saying he’ll flourish in his second year at the helm.

·       Speaking of second year, Frost and staff in oft-magical year #2.

·       Nine starters back on offense including 101 career starts.

·       Just 4 starters back on “D” but DL is excellent and AAC defensive player of the year LB Griffin is back with his amputated left hand.

Jibes with Public Perception

Cincinnati

·       The 2016 Bearkitties underperformed more than any team in the country (4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS) with an offense that averaged 19 points per game while being held to single digits four times.

·       Tuberville was justifiably axed and Luke Fickell takes over.

·       Only 11 starters back might be a blessing but the Wiz sees no reason to play or fade these guys.

Connecticut

·       At 14.8 points per game, the 2016 Connecticut “O” was even worse than Cinci’s.

·       Head coach Edsell returns at the helm and he blows wad.

·       Offense transitioning from plodders to a wide open passing game sans the personnel to make that change.

·       Spreads will be huge on a weekly basis and as vet Wiz followers know, he ain’t  a huge fan of playing games with 25+ lines.

Houston

·       Major Applewhite in year #1 as head coach but was Houston’s off coord the last two years so transition will be relatively smooth.

·       Year in and year out, the Cougars are schizo much like their namesakes in Pullman, so the Wiz won’t be pulling the trigger on or against this squad.

Wizard Weygint's Popcorn Recipe

One cannot live on college football analysis alone, so when you need a break to recharge the handicapping batteries, the Wiz recommends his popcorn recipe.

Ingredients: Jolly Time yellow popcorn, powdered brewer's yeast, salt, canola oil, Mongolian fire oil.

1. Use a pressure cooker (without the pressure element) or a similar sized popping rig. This is critical as we are striving for quick, ultra-hot heating action in order to minimize moisture and promote hulking hulls. 
2. Cut a standard brown paper grocery bag to about .25 its original size and use it as your "bowl."
3. Put a 3-1 ratio of canola oil and Mongolian Fire oil (or whatever hot pepper oil that you can procure) into the pressure cooker and crank the heat up to max level. Add a single kernel, no lieutenants, and wait til it pops. During this waiting period you should position the popcorn, salt, bag, and brewer's yeast in a manner that will allow easy access during the popping process.
4. After the test kernel pops, immediately add the popcorn. Wiz is from the old school of eyeing the popcorn/oil ratio so all he can tell you is make sure each kernel is coated with oil.
5. Keep the lid off as long as possible, until the popping action threatens to spit the kernels all over. Remember, the key is to keep ol' man moisture at bay; the same place we like ol' man vig in the wagering realm. 
6. As soon as the popcorn fills 2/3 of the cooker, take the lid off. This will promote moisture escape, and by this time enough popcorn is in the cooker to keep subsequent "pops" from throwing kernels about the kitchen.
7. When the popcorn approaches overflow level, quickly deposit half of it into the bag, and reposition the cooker on the fire.
8. Quickly, yet gently, pat the kernels with the sides of the bag to absorb excess moisture, and then sprinkle on the brewer's yeast and salt. Be generous with that yeast for it packs a nutritious and oh-so-flavorful punch.
9. Get back to the cooker ASAP and repeat step #7 if necessary. If a smallish batch, it won't threaten to overflow so just wait until the popcorn ceases popping, and empty the remaining contents into the bag. Like before, pat the kernels down, then add salt and brewer's yeast.
10. Serve as soon as possible after production.

*Wizard Weygint finds cranberry juice a wonderful compliment to his savory kernels.*

**If you prefer more of a gourmet flair to your batch, use Jolly Time white instead of the yellow.**

Wizard Weygint's 2017 SEC Preseason Analysis

 Overrated 

Georgia 

• - QB Eason and Husky QB Browning are sons of different mothers as both have the intestinal fortitude of the common house fly. 
• - Yes they’re the 13th most experienced team in the country but cripes, they barely beat Nicholls and Louisiana Lafayette last year and lost to f’ing Vandy. 
• - Lose 120 career starts on the OL which exacerbates the Eason deer in the headlights situation. 

LSU 

• - The Orgeron novelty figures to have worn off and the reality of his true head coaching ability (10-25 at Ole Miss) will set in. 
• - Only 11 starters back with top five 2016 tacklers departed. Ultra stud DE Key was out for spring and had shoulder surgery in June, which further hampers the depleted D. 
• - QB Etling looked horrible in the spring and back-ups blow so don’t see this mediocre offense improving. 
• - Wiz rates all positions either down or equal to 2016. 

Slightly Overrated 

Bama 

• - Bama pulled a rare attrition trifecta losing the Outland, Nagurski and Butkus award winners in the same year.  Yes they reload but them’s some monster losses. 
• - They have 4 national titles the last 8 years but none when preseason ranked #1 as they are in 2017. 
• - Wiz watched the spring game and backup QB Tagavoila looked like best QB in the country which may stir up the dreaded QB controversy cuz he’s that good and ain’t gonna be content collecting pine all season. 

Hogs 

• - Bielema’s idiocy kept the Wiz from winning the 1,600 participant Phil Steele bowl pool last year as the Hogs blew a 24-0 lead and lost to Vagina Tech in the Belk Bowl. 
• - Wiz is mighty proud of his 5th place finish but his ultra manly call on Arkansas as 7-point dogs was violated by Biel-lame-o and the Wiz shall never forgive him. 
• - This is a solidly mediocre team with just 12 starters back including massive receiver and specs losses along with the departure of their All-American LT Skipper, who like his namesake on the island is a load of a man. 

Miss State 

• - Huge losses on the OL (92 career starts depart) and DL (1 returning starter) can’t help but make MSU somewhat overrated. 
• - Specs blow an L.D.S. sized chode, and the 4th def coordinator in the last four years is tasked to improve on last year’s hapless 459 yards surrendered per game. 
• - QB Fitzgerald is among the SEC’s better QBs which ain’t sayin’ a lot, and he no longer has two-time all SEC WR Ross to target. 
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Vandy 

• - Coming off a somewhat rare bowl game last year, Vandy won’t lurk under the radar as they do most seasons.  
• - Despite their bowl appearance, the ‘Dores were -682 net yards in 2016 with a Steele game grade of #73. 
• - The loss of consensus all-American LB Cunningham is huge as are losses at the critical LT and C slots. 

• - During the SEC media days, RB Webb announced that he’s “the best running back in the nation” which probably ain’t the best of ideas when your teams only edge is being the hunter, not the hunted. 
• - Wiz looks forward to seeing the SEC elite defenses extra pumped to pummel Webb 

Underrated 

Auburn 

• - Baylor transfer QB Stidham looked all-world in the spring. 
• - Wiz rates every position improved barring the DL.  
• - Six of 7 top tacklers back from a 2016 squad that gave up just 17.1 ppg and played a tough schedule that included holding Clemson to 19 points at Clemson. 
• - Expectations somewhat tempered after going 15-11 straight up the last two years and failing to cover their last five. 
• - This is a seriously good looking team with no chinks in their armor which makes them a Wiz dark horse contenders for the national chumpionship along with Wisky. 

Mizzou 

• - Tigers the only team with a 3,000 yard QB, 1,000 yard RB, and a 1,000 yard WR returning this year. 
• - Head coach Odom in oft-magical year #2. 
• - The #19 most experienced team in the country bolstered by the fact they had a shit ton of injuries last year and most of those guys are back. 
• - Coming off a 4-8 2016 and having gone 8-16 against the spread the last two years, expectations will be ultra low which makes this the Wiz’s #1 value team going into 2017. 
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Kentucky 

• - 17 returning starters with a Phil Steele talent ranking of #34; that lofty ranking hasn’t been seen in Lexington for many a moon. 
• - They got bowl practices for the first time under Stoops so figure to benefit from that. 
• - OL returns 4 starters from a very good 2016 unit, while 8 of the top 10 tacklers return. 
• - Preseason pubs, Vegas and the soiled masses somewhat hip to the Cats’ value but their many upsides make the Cats a well-deserved Wiz underrated team. 

Slightly Underrated 

Cock 

• - Muschamp in oft-magical year #2 with 16 returning starters and bowl practices under their belts…which is also where their namesakes are located. 
• - Highly touted QB Bentley will be even better in his soph season and has some of the SEC’s best receivers to target. 

Jibes with Public Perception 

Florida 

• - Off back-to-back SEC East chumpionships, Gators now the unquestioned hunted which don’t bode well with a redshirt frosh QB scheduled to start for a perennially shitty offense. 
• - Huge DB losses and only one of the top four tacklers returning portends defensive woes. 
• - Keep in mind they finished 2016 getting hammered by Florida State and Bama, and followed that up with a 30-3 win over grossly overrated Iowa in their backyard (Alahomo Bowl). 
• - Phil Steele is touting them a surprise, national title contender team but Wiz ain’t havin’ none of that. 

Texas A&M 

• - Wiz’s wallet substantially fattened during the pathetic Sumlin regime as the Aggies have gone 17-33-2 the last four years. 
• - Both the preseason pundits and Vegas are finally hip to Sumlin’s ineptitude so alas, Sumlin’s fade value is now but a fond memory. 
• - Wiz wouldn’t bat an eye if Sumlin is axed mid-season. 

Vols 

• - Vols are a mixed bag with 8 of top 9 tacklers back and all-world specs, while the QBs are green and 3 of the top 4 receivers are no mas. 

• - Despite their 9-4 record last season, they were a -72 net yards with a mediocre Phil Steele game grade of #39. 
• - Wiz was tempted to tab Tennessee slightly overrated but given their annual schizo factor, he’ll keep them here in the jibes column and continue his time honored tradition of rarely playing on/against the Vols. 

Ole Miss 

• - Freeze's "misdial" debacle provides plenty of bar room yuk material but leaves the Rebs in "avoid like the plague status." 
• - Despite their 2-6 SEC record last year, the Rebels were only -8 ypg in SEC play. 
• - While returning just 11 starters, Wiz rates every position improved barring receivers. 
• - Offense is loaded with raw talent and the K/P combo the best in the SEC. 
• - With the self-imposed 2017 bowl ban and 11 returning starters coming off a lackluster 5-7 season, expectations will be ultra low. 
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