Overrated
USF
· Charlie Strong couldn’t coach his way out of a brown paper bag so returning 16 starters from an 11-2 2016 ain’t turning Wizard’s head.
· Despite said record, Bulls were only +379 net yards on the season vs. a lackluster slate of opponents.
· USF +19 turnovers last two years so look for Lady Luck to take her wares somewhere besides Tampa in 2017.
· New def coordinator is their fourth in as many years.
Navy
· Middies’ 9-5 straight up 2016 record belies the fact they were only +60 net yards on the season.
· Huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions.
Slightly Overrated
Temple
· Like Navy, huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions. Unlike Navy, a redshirt frosh is slated to start at QB.
· First year coach in his first head coaching gig portends trouble as does the loss of 5 of the top 6 tacklers.
· Expectations will be high on the heels of back to back 10-4 seasons and leading the nation last year with a 12-2 spread record.
Tulsa
· Coming off a 10-3 record in 2016, and back to back 8-5 spread performances, expectations will be higher than justified.
· Ultra green QBs.
· Top two receivers are gone, as are 3 of the top 4 tacklers.
Memphis
· One of several AAC teams with coaches in oft-magical year #2.
· Tigers the 6th most experienced team in the country.
· All world specs in concert with a vet QB and 103 off. line starts is a comely combo.
· That said, the defense is on the sucky side and expectations are higher than justified.
Underrated
East Carolina
· Pirates were -16 turnovers last year which provides 2017 value.
· Providing even more value is the fact they went 3-9 SU last year but were +172 net yards….that’s some serious value.
· Second year coach Montgomery in oft-magical year #2.
· Off the 3-9 season in which they were an equally bad 3-8-1 ATS, expectations will be subterranean.
SMU
· Stangs lost a whopping 16% of starters to injury in 2016, and it’s no secret that W.W. loves playing teams off injury-riddled campaigns.
· Tenth most experienced team in the country.
· Providing further value is their 5-7 record last year in which they played most of the big boys toe to toe.
Tulane (not TooLame this year)
· Ten of top 13 tacklers return from a solid 2016 defense.
· Coaching staff in year #2 with a JUCO transfer QB who perfectly fits the spread option attack.
· Despite a 4-8 2016 record, the Wave were only -277 net yards and outgained their foes in three losses including +60 yards at Houston.
Slightly Underrated
UCF
· Soph QB Milton is undersized (5’11” and 170) but head coach Scott Frost super high on him saying he’ll flourish in his second year at the helm.
· Speaking of second year, Frost and staff in oft-magical year #2.
· Nine starters back on offense including 101 career starts.
· Just 4 starters back on “D” but DL is excellent and AAC defensive player of the year LB Griffin is back with his amputated left hand.
Jibes with Public Perception
Cincinnati
· The 2016 Bearkitties underperformed more than any team in the country (4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS) with an offense that averaged 19 points per game while being held to single digits four times.
· Tuberville was justifiably axed and Luke Fickell takes over.
· Only 11 starters back might be a blessing but the Wiz sees no reason to play or fade these guys.
Connecticut
· At 14.8 points per game, the 2016 Connecticut “O” was even worse than Cinci’s.
· Head coach Edsell returns at the helm and he blows wad.
· Offense transitioning from plodders to a wide open passing game sans the personnel to make that change.
· Spreads will be huge on a weekly basis and as vet Wiz followers know, he ain’t a huge fan of playing games with 25+ lines.
Houston
· Major Applewhite in year #1 as head coach but was Houston’s off coord the last two years so transition will be relatively smooth.
· Year in and year out, the Cougars are schizo much like their namesakes in Pullman, so the Wiz won’t be pulling the trigger on or against this squad.
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