The Wizard's Pac-12 Analysis & Commentary

North Division

Oregon (Overrated relative to public perception)

The Ducks get a slap on the bill for the Wille Lyles scandal and with it a target on their backs that would make Elmer Fudd dewirious. Now more than ever, Oregon is the hunted and that, in concert with several other factors, portends pointspread problems in 2013.

First-year head coach Helfrich seems like a cool hang, unlike his predecessor Chip Kelly who like the Quack fan base, would sell out his mother if it made him look good. But the fact remains that first-year coaches with zero head coaching experience are to be faded.

Oregon’s defensive front seven took it in the attrition shorts with the loss of LB’s Clay and Alonso (182 combined tackles including 24 for loss) and the departure of 1st round NFL draft pick DT Jordan. Yes, Oregon re-loads on offense but the same can’t be said for their D. Duck specs look pedestrian at best.

Solid specs and a top-notch D front seven are key ingredients in covering lofty imposts, and the Quack will harbor substantial chalk throughout the season barring their visit to Stanford where they’ll be out to avenge their only 2012 loss.

Oregon was a whopping +21 turnovers last season (+1.62 per game) which led the nation. Lady Luck’s role in the turnover realm can’t be denied, nor can her taste for the glamorous life that no one provides better than Nike magnate Phil Knight. But Wiz sources reveal that Miss Luck has grown tired of the palatial digs and Eugene's greasy hippy scene, and is moving her wares 458 miles northeast to Pullman (more on that in the Washington State analysis below.)

With more teams implementing hurry-up offenses, defenses are getting more practice reps at defending the fast-paced fury so don’t be surprised to see a decent-sized dip in Oregon’s lofty 49.6 points per game from last season, and with it, the first season since 2002 (yes 2002!!!) that the Quack finish below .500 against the spread.

                            Stanford (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

The Cardinal faked the Vegas oddsmakers of their jocks from 2009-2011 as they covered the spread at a 69% clip (editorial note: isn’t it super cool when you’re putting in yet another mundane day at the ‘capping grindstone and a stat comes up as 69? Like potty humor, it guarantees a yuk and never gets old.)

Last year’s 6-6-2 spread performance was nothing to sneeze at but illustrates Vegas is finally getting getting hip to the Tree. That, in concert with preseason rankings of  #4 and #2 in the AP and Sports Illustrated respectively, has sucked the value out of the Cardinal and has the Wiz finally again feeling comfortable with the Stanfarce moniker.

The Card D is the bees knees with its eight starters and 81% of tackles returning from the 2012 edition that gave up a meager 17 points per game. Said squad is massive and makes the ’85 Chicago Bears defense look on the diminutive side with the exception of the Fridge. On the flip side, the offense returns just 31% of its 2012 offensive yards (#119 in country) led by a new off. coordinator and a soph QB with only five starts throwing to a receiving corps decimated by graduation.

Adding to the Wiz’s Cardinal concerns is their mediocre specs and the fact that they lost only 10 starters to injury in 2012 (average is 19) while being +9 in turnovers. The Wiz has a history of reading Stanford like a dime store novel and here’s hoping that tradition continues in 2013.

                        Washington (Slightly underrated relative to public perception)

This year’s Huskies are a rookie handicapper’s dewiest dream as they’re the fourth most experienced team in the country with 97% of their offensive total yards and 80% of tackles returning from a 2012 squad that finished the season on a 5-1 pointspread role.

U-Dub’s D surrendered only 24 ppg, down from 36 in 2011. The decrease was in part due to MLB Timu putting on 20 pounds of muscle (wink, wink) during the offseason that raised his level of play from pathetic to passable although he still masters the art of jumping on piles at the end of plays to make people forget he missed the tackle seconds earlier. Speaking of overrated, the uneducated and soiled masses bemoan the loss of CB Trufant when in reality his departure is addition by subtraction as he was fried more than a stoner on the Ave.

Chips on shoulders provide value and reports from Husky camp are that the UW is ultra pumped to atone for their season-ending heartbreaking losses to Wazzu and Boise Steak. Fisticuffs during practice indicate a team is on its emotional A-game and per Sarkisian, things have been very chippy during August drills.

Adding to the Husky allure is that after years of mediocrity, on the heels of the Willingscum debacle, the Huskies are under the radar playing in their newly refurbished stadium which is among the loudest venues in the country, that is, if people can pull themselves away from their double tall lattes long enough to cheer.

So from a value perspective, what’s not to like about the Huskies you ask? This is essentially the same team that two games ago gave up 18 points and 10 first downs during a 4^th quarter meltdown in an overtime loss to Wazzu. And this is the same Keith Price who was a deer in the headlights last season after a near Heisman-like performance in 2011.

Sarkisian’s namby pamby “everything’s gonna be all right” style plays well with the lefty locals but robs the team of the discipline, consistency and sense of urgency necessary to ascend much above the mediocrity of the last three 7-6 seasons. Wiz foresees an 8-5 season and several opportunities at the wagering window but with a coach like Sark, be very careful about picking your spots.

                                  Oregon State (Corresponds with public perception)

The Wiz likes riding beaver with the best of 'em, but can barely muster a loper when it cums to the 2013 Beavers. Mike Riley is famous for overachieving when expectations are low but such is not the case this year with OSU coming off 9-4 straight up and spread performances, and harboring a preseason top 25 ranking.

The Beavs are a veteran team, especially on offense where they return eight starters, 80% of their 2012 yards and 88 career starts on the offensive line. Riley just announced that junior QB Sean Mannion, he of the 65% completion rate and 15-13 TD/int ratio last season, will start the opener.

The top five tacklers return to a defense that gave up just 20.6 points per game last year while holding Wisky and UCLA to a combined 27 points, but alas, the pointspread promised land is usually reached by line of scrimmage control which makes the Beavers lackluster -0.3 offensive vs defensive yards per carry stat from last year a red flag. Adding to the concerns are last season’s +8 turnovers and only seven starts lost to injury.

Only once in the last nine years under Riley did the Beavs enter the season with a top 25 ranking and that year (2010) they went 5-7 straight up including a 31-14 loss to Wazzu as 24-point chalk….yikes!! OSU hasn’t had this much talent and experience in years but the grizzled Wizard won’t be fooled and is looking elsewhere for value.

                              
                          Washington State (Underrated relative to public perception) 

Getting Mike Leach in oft-magical year #2 at the helm, along with16 returning starters, would arguably be sufficient to tab Wazzu underrated, but there are many more reasons to believe that WSU won’t “coug it” this season. 

First and foremost, Leach swung his sword and got rid of the pussies that had become Charmin-soft under ex-coach Paul Wulff. Was it just me or did Wulff always look like he was trying to take a big Sunday mornin’ dump that wouldn’t clear his brown star no matter how hard he tried? 

Forty-two different players started last season as Leach separated the men from the boys. Can’t deny that the Cougs were laughable at times in 2012 with their mind blowing 57 sacks surrendered, home loss to hapless Colorado, and 40+ point losses at Utah and at ASU. But it’s the silver linings that provide value and their were many including a 24-17 loss to Stanford in which they had a 25-13 first down edge, playing Oregon toe-to-toe for a half, and ending the season beating the Huskies as two TD dogs. 

The Coug D returns 85% of its tacklers and reports are that QB Halliday, who sat out the 2011 spring with a lacerated liver, is much improved after having a 2012 spring to better absorb Leach’s Air Raid. Speaking of livers and absorption, what better school than alcohol-swilling Wazzu to have a QB out with a lacerated liver? Despite their 1-8 Pac-12 record, WSU was a respectable -52.9 yards per game. 

Wazzu hasn’t been on the plus side of total turnovers since 2006 (a mind-blowing - 48 during that stretch) so Lady Luck, an unabashed cougar, will undoubtedly receive a warm welcome in Pullman and spill her bountiful bosom all over the Palouse. 

                                            Cal (Corresponds with public perception)

Thankfully the majority of Bear backers are stoners and academics that care more about THC content and quantum physics than a bunch of silly undergrads strapping on helmets and running into one another. Otherwise, the heartbreak in Berkeley would be unbearable. 

Documenting the woes would be a war and peace like endeavor, so keeping with the marijuana theme, the Wiz will hit only the “high” points starting with Cal being the second most inexperienced team in the country led by QBs who have nary a collegiate start. The offensive line has a meager 28 returning starts and lost starters at the key center and left tackle slots. All positions are below average in the Wiz’s power ratings barring the def front seven which is solidly average. 

Last but not least, the coaching staff is in year #1 at Cal led by Sonny Dykes who with a name like that has endeared himself to Berkeley’s legendary legion of lezbos. 

Hard to believe that Cal was the Pac 12’s Ric Flair as recently as 2009 with their #6 ranking and Tedford on top of the coaching world. Alas, they’re now the conference’s Greg Gagne with a tiny lil’ chode barely making a dent in the fabled yellow speedo.

                                                             South Division

                    Arizona State (Slightly underrated relative to public perception)

The Sun Devils were the Pac-12’s 2011 poster child for thuggery as they led the conference in penalties under mercenary coach Dennis Erickson who in his golden years can no longer cultivate thugs like he did in his heyday with Miami and Oregon State. After five flounder-filled years, Erickson was given his walking papers, replaced by Todd Graham who guided the 2012 squad to an 8-5 spread clip while committing the conference’s fewest penalties.

With a deep and talented stable of QBs and RBs, ASU figures to keep cranking out the points (38.4 in 2012) in year #2 of the spread option. Graham says the size and speed of the defensive front 7 is much improved, led by the potent 1-2 punch of all-American DT Sutton and underrated LB Bradford, he of the 12 sacks and nine tackles for loss last season.

Like the comely coeds struttin’ their stuff on Tempe’s Mill Avenue, the 2013 Devils are hot at first glance but are not without blemishes as they had only one 2012 FBS win vs. a team with a winning record and lost only five starts to injury. That’s why the Wiz is pulling back the optimistic reins and tabbing ASU only slightly underrated as opposed to the full meal deal overrated.

On a related note, after that crack about the imperfections of the Tempe tarts, I did a thorough review of my mammaries, er…memories, of bar-hopping in Tempe in the 1980’s and would like to retract that statement. With the possible exception of western Montana chicks, those Tempe temptresses were pound for pound the hottest I’ve ever seen and were first-stringers in the Wizard’s spank bank well into the 90’s.

                                USC (Slightly overrated relative to public perception)

The 2012 Trojans were the first team since 1964 (Ole Miss) to be preseason ranked #1 and finish the season unranked. As if that dubious distinction weren’t enough, each team they beat had at least five losses including mediocre at best Georgia Tech which snapped their 7-game bowl losing streak by humiliating the pretty boys 21-7 in the Sunk Bowl.  Simply put, the Trojans blew chode of Holmesian proportions.

Like most seasons, the 2013 Trojans cum loaded with top-notch talent but have the discipline of a Beverly Hills 9^th grader. Evidently head coach Kiffin thinks it’s west coast cool to allow his players to call him by his last name, but can you think of a better example of a coach not instilling discipline? Don’t rack your brain too much pondering that question cuz the Wiz has it answered in spades. In response to Kiffin not naming a QB starter during August drills, prima donna wideout Marquis Lee called the decision “crazy” and told reporters “I’m sitting here just like you guys….lost.” Imagine the carnage if a Bama player called Saban by his last name and question him in the press.

USC has top 5 talent on the OL, DL, LB and receiving corps and above average talent elsewhere. That, in concert with last year’s debacle (3-10 against the number) and preseason #24 ranking, should spell value at the wagering window. But the Trojans are the smokin’ hot chick that turns heads of both types but gives 17% in the sack and even less in the kitchen. Having been around the babe block a few times, the Wiz ain’t takin’ the bait.

                             UCLA (Slightly underrated relative to public perception)

Mora is one of four Pac-12 head coaches in oft-magical year #2 and worked wonders last season as the Bruins went from 6-8 to 9-5 and a berth in the conference title game. The key to last year’s uptick was Mora having the balls to start redshirt frosh QB Hundley over sad sack senior QB Kevin Prince who was arguably the most overrated QB in college football history and played at UCLA since the Clinton administration.

All Hundley did was put up 3,740 yards of total offense which is more than Prince did in his 12 seasons.  Hundley’s cause wasn’t hurt by the presence of all-American RB Franklin who is now in Green Bay with a serious case of seasonal affective disorder and culture shock.

Flies in the ointment keeping the Wiz from tabbing UCLA fully underrated are their ultra green secondary, shoddy specs, an offensive line that yielded 52 sacks last season, and the fact that despite last year’s 6-3 Pac-12 record, they were only +2.6 points per game in said games.

The Mora/Hundley combo is potent as is the defensive front seven, but with a rare preseason top 25 ranking (#21) coming off a head-turning season, the expectations are elevated and spreads will adjust accordingly. With that said, it wouldn’t shock the Wiz to see these guys cover at a 60 - 70% clip.

                     Arizona (Ever so slightly underrated relative to public perception)

On the bright side, Rich Rod is in frequently lucrative year #2 with a consensus All-American running back and an unheard of 94% of tackles returning from 2012. On the dark side, Rodriguez is a Tyrone Willingscam-like 16-33 against the spread in his last four seasons as a head coach, and says he may start three different QBs prior to conference play….oh the dreaded QB musical chairs.

The 11 returning starters on D and boat load of returning tackles brings to mind the old adage, “Statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, but what they conceal is vital.” Concealed in this case is a 2012 defense that surrendered 499 yards per game and carried on the Slack-12’s time-honored tradition of touch football-like tackling.

The Wiz tabs the ‘Cats ever so slightly underrated because last year they had Stanford, the Beavs and ASU on the 4^th quarter ropes in close losses and played the Quack much better than the 49-0 score would indicate.

For you Arizona backers out there, here’s hoping projected starting redshirt frosh wide receiver Trey Griffey has a better work ethic than his dad Ken Griffey Jr, who mastered the art of jogging out grounders and was on a first-name basis with the staff at the Royal Fork.

                                         Utah (Corresponds with public perception)

So sad that a state blessed with such majestic beauty has one of the nation’s most insomnia inducing college football teams. Every single one of the Wiz’s position power ratings have the Utes (such a lackluster nickname) at or slightly below mediocre.

They’re among the nation’s most inexperienced teams with 12 returning starters and an offensive line with only 28 starts. This is by far the least talented team the Utes have fielded in years and with that comes low expectations. 

The Wiz can’t start a handicapping fire without a spark and there’s none to be found with these teetotalers so let’s move on.

                           Colorado (Slightly underrated relative to public perception)

To say the Buffs were horrific last season (1-11 straight up and 3-9 vs the spread) would be the understatement of the year, akin to saying Long Dong Silver’s chode is on the lengthy side of the penal spectrum. The countless 2012 Buff atrocities make it difficult to choose from. Wiz’s faves are the defense’s 39-3 TD to interception ratio and the team being outscored by 30.7 points per game in Slack-12 play. Honorable mention goes to the special teams that recorded 145 total punt return yards during the last two seasons.

Head coach Jon Embree (4-21 in two Boulder campaigns) had the leadership ability of a potted plant and has been replaced by former San Jose St head coach Mike McIntyre and his stellar 19-6 spread record over the last two seasons. This is a monster upgrade and reports out of Kerchief Head Central are that team chemistry is excellent.

CU was -19 turnovers last season and lost a whopping 32 starts to injury. That, in concert with the coaching upgrade and crap load of returning lettermen, has the Wiz believing the Buffs will cover more often than not in 2013.