Wizard Weygint's 2017 Big 10 Preseason Analysis

Overrated

Minnesota

• Coming off a 9-4 2016 with "all the rage" new coach Fleck, expectations will be high but reality will be a bitch.
• Gophs won one game last season vs. a winning team (Colo St) and failed to cover in that game by 10.5 points.
• Their 2016 Phil Steele game grade of #54 underscores their deceptive 9-4 finish.
• They're ultra inexperienced cuming in at #116 in the country.

Penn State

• Grossly overrated head coach Franklin will wilt under the lofty expectations off an 11-3 straight up/ATS 2016 during which they consistently lucked out with receivers somehow always catching McSorley's up-for-grabs passes.
• Defense loses top three sack men.

Slightly Overrated

Ohio State

• Massive NFL attrition includes three (yes 3!) #1 draft picks at DB, all American center, all world WR Samuel, and top tackler.
• Buckeyes were +15 turnovers last season with 11.7 off yards per play and 19.2 def yards per play, all of which portend a 2017 downturn.
• Freshmen scheduled to start at K and P.
• Their 30-3 violation by Clemson (-255 net yards) in the Fiesta says volumes.

Michigan

• Just 5 returning starters and the third least experienced team in the country.
• Lose 7 of top 8 tacklers including salty Peppers.
• Yes expectations will be tempered, but with the Harbaugh hype factor, fading them in the right spots will provide value such as the Oct 14 game at Indy sandwiched between Mich St and Penn St.

Iowa

• Played a Charmin-soft 2016 schedule and were still -340 net years with a Steele game grade of #52, all the while going a mediocre 8-5.
• Projected starting QB has 9 collegiate pass attempts.
• Hawkeyes are +17 turnovers last two seasons.
• Specs gutted including departure of All American PR/KR King.

Underrated

Nebraska

• Pundits way down on the Huskers with just 10 returning starters and loss of QB Armstrong, which in reality is addition by subtraction.
• Only one 2016 Husker was drafted and he was a 5th rounder so it ain't like they lost tonsa talent.
• Riley in year #3 and finally has a pro style QB in Tulane grad transfer Lee who has 19 collegiate starts.
• Wiz already played the over on 2017 total wins at 7.

Rutgers

• Underrated head coach Ash in oft-magical year #2.
• Jerry Kill, he of the perpetual seizures, brought on as off coord and the players will buy into his motivational shtick.
• Lotsa 2016 injuries and most of those guys return.
• Expectations subterranean low off hapless 2-10 record in  2016.

Slightly Underrated

Indiana

• Yes they have a 1st year head coach but he was the def coord here so adjustments relatively minimal.
• 8 of top 9 tacklers return from a 2017 "D" that went from #120 in the country in 2015 to #45 last year.
• In 2016, Indy played toe to toe with Penn St, Michigan, Ohio St and Nebraska into the 4th quarter.
• Pundits seem to have somewhat uncovered the same value as does the Wiz, hence the "slightly underrated" assessment as opposed to the full blown underrated.

Northwestern

• Sixteen starters back with the #16 most experienced team in the country.
• RB combo of Jackson/Moten is Big 10's best.
• Last year they almost beat OSU in the 'Shoe and were only -17 net yards in a 21-7 loss vs. Wisky. 
• Like Indy, the pundits are somewhat onto the Cats, hence only slightly underrated.

Purdon't

• 1st year head coach Brohm a major upgrade off of hapless Hazell.
• Boilers led or trailed by 5 or less in five of their last six games but lost them all. The -17 turnovers on the season didn't help matters and provides 2017 value.
• Coming off 3-9 and 2-10 seasons, expectations will be low.

Twerps

• Durkin in oft-magical year #2 with arguably the best recruiting class in Twerp history.
• Twerps -25 turnovers last two years so look for a change o' fortunes in 2017.
• Bowl practices will help the greenish Twerps (#96 experience).

Wisky

• Ultra underrated Chryst in oft-magical year #3 with 15 starters back from an excellent 2016 team.
• Their tough 2016 schedule leaves them battle tested in 2017.
• With 90 career OL returning starts, Chryst finally has a Wisky-like OL along with stud TE Fumigalli.
• They figure to be chalk in every regular season game which makes Wiz's 80-1 national championship play on the Badgers look pretty comely.

Jibes with Public Perception

Illinois

• These guys suck Holmesian sized chode and everyone finally knows it; of course the Wiz called that the second Lovey Smith was hired.
• Numerous off-season suspensions underscore Smith's ineptitude.

Michigan State

• For the first time in over 40 years of college football, a team lost 5 consecutive games outright as chalk; that team was the 2016 Spartans.
• MSU the least experienced team in the country.
• The wheels have come off the program with all the sexual assault stuff so will avoid them like the plague despite ultra low expectations.