Wizard Weygint's 2017 Mountain West Preseason Analysis

Overrated

Wyoming

·       Pretender ‘Pokes playing in the 2016 MWC championship game belies the fact they were -19.5 net yards per game in conference play and -261 net yards on the season.

·       Wiz loves few things more than fading teams like Wyoming that are now the hunted after years of ineptitude (15-33 record the previous 4 seasons).

·       Projected NFL 1^st rounder QB Josh Allen is a Jake Browning-like paper tiger. When stepping up in class he wilts like a chode off back-to-back jizzes as illustrated by his six picks vs. Nebraska last year.

·       Speaking of jizz, specs blow wad and the top 3 receivers depart, as does their all conference center.

·       Pokes are the Wiz’s #1 fade team in 2017!

New Mexico

·       Like Wyoming, their 6-2 conference record last season belies the fact they were a meager +6.2 net yards in MWC action.

·       Just three returning starters back on defense with a paltry 39% of their 2016 tacklers returning.

·       Bob Davie’s IQ hovers slightly above room temp.

·       Off a deceiving 9-4 2016, and an equally deceiving bowl win where they were outgained by 70 yards, expectations will be high which has the Lobos high on the Wiz’s 2017 fade list.

Slightly Overrated

Air Farce

·       Massive attrition in Falconland with one returning starter on D, a measly 42 returning offensive line starts, and the loss of a rare NFL caliber WR.

·       Farce only +5 net yards per game in conference play while going 5-3.

·       Despite said attrition, coming off a 10-3 2016 campaign and a 24-point bowl win, expectations are still be a bit higher than justified.

San Diego Steak

·       Coming off a 10-3 2016 and a 24-point bowl win as 4-point pooches vs. Houston, expectations are high and the preseason pundits are buying into it, but Wiz pulls back the curtain and knows better.

·       Just one starter returns on the offensive line and two time All-American RB Pumphrey is now playing on Sundays.

·       Aztecs an absurd +36 turnovers the last two seasons and they lost just 15 starters to injury last year so Lady Luck due to take a big, greasy dump on them.

·       SDS among the least experienced teams in the country (#115).

San Hose Me

·       Wiz tabs the Spartans slightly overrated not because of inflated expectations (4-8 2016), but because they have a new head coach who has never led a team, a 28 year old first time offensive coordinator, and a first time defensive coordinator.

Underrated

Utah Steak

·       Aggies went 3-9 in 2016 but amazingly were just -43 net yards on the season and +2.6 net yards in conference play despite going 1-7.

·       Speaking of value, Utah Steak 4-13 their last 17 with seven losses by a TD or less including four blown 4^th quarter leads.

·       Having faced 8 bowl teams last season, they’re battle tested for 2017.

·       Wiz will play the Aggies early and often this season.

Boise Steak

·       Broncs started 2016 going 7-0 but were upset by Wyoming and lost their last two including an embarrassing bowl performance, so they finished unranked and thus find themselves in rare “under the radar” status.

·       Wiz no stranger to padding his wallet with upper echelon teams like Boise State in a rare no-love preseason scenarios.

·       Adding value is in 2016 they allowed 13 TDs after getting a 17-point or more 4^th quarter lead.

Fresno Steak

·       Jeff Tedford taking over the helm and few coaches have padded the Wiz’s wallet more than he (Bill Snyder a notable exception.)

·       Off a worst ever 1-11 campaign, expectations will be ultra low, which is deep in Tedford’s wheelhouse.

Slightly Underrated

Colorado Steak

·       While seeing nothing special value wise in the traditional Wiz sense, with their new $220 million stadium that’s right on campus, the Lambs find themselves in Wiz’s slightly underrated column.

·       Third year coaching staff with the 22^nd most experienced team in the country.

Rainbows

·       Bows an unheard of -31 turnovers the last two seasons, so look for Lady Luck to set up shop on some swanky Waikiki beach in 2017.

·       Coaches in oft-magical year #2 and got rare bowl practices last season (first since 2010).

Jibes with Public Perception

Nevada

·       First year coaches installing new off and def schemes.

·       Average home attendance last season a meager 18,000.

UNLV

·       Defense greener than April in Seattle with two returning starters.

·       Rebs 2016 QBs combined for the nation’s lowest completion percentage (49%).

·       As you can see, not much going on in the state of Nevada for the Wiz in 2017.

Wizard Weygint's 2017 AAC Preseason Analysis

Overrated

USF

·       Charlie Strong couldn’t coach his way out of a brown paper bag so returning 16 starters from an 11-2 2016 ain’t turning Wizard’s head.

·       Despite said record, Bulls were only +379 net yards on the season vs. a lackluster slate of opponents.

·       USF +19 turnovers last two years so look for Lady Luck to take her wares somewhere besides Tampa in 2017.

·       New def coordinator is their fourth in as many years.

Navy

·       Middies’ 9-5 straight up 2016 record belies the fact they were only +60 net yards on the season.

·       Huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions.

Slightly Overrated

Temple

·       Like Navy, huge losses at the critical center and left tackle positions. Unlike Navy, a redshirt frosh is slated to start at QB.

·       First year coach in his first head coaching gig portends trouble as does the loss of 5 of the top 6 tacklers.

·       Expectations will be high on the heels of back to back 10-4 seasons and leading the nation last year with a 12-2 spread record.

Tulsa

·       Coming off a 10-3 record in 2016, and back to back 8-5 spread performances, expectations will be higher than justified.

·       Ultra green QBs.

·       Top two receivers are gone, as are 3 of the top 4 tacklers.

Memphis

·        One of several AAC teams with coaches in oft-magical year #2. 

·       Tigers the 6^th most experienced team in the country.

·       All world specs in concert with a vet QB and 103 off. line starts is a comely combo.

·       That said, the defense is on the sucky side and expectations are higher than justified.

Underrated

East Carolina

·       Pirates were -16 turnovers last year which provides 2017 value.

·       Providing even more value is the fact they went 3-9 SU last year but were +172 net yards….that’s some serious value.

·       Second year coach Montgomery in oft-magical year #2.

·       Off the 3-9 season in which they were an equally bad 3-8-1 ATS, expectations will be subterranean.

SMU

·       Stangs lost a whopping 16% of starters to injury in 2016, and it’s no secret that W.W. loves playing teams off injury-riddled campaigns.

·       Tenth most experienced team in the country.

·       Providing further value is their 5-7 record last year in which they played most of the big boys toe to toe.

Tulane (not TooLame this year)

·       Ten of top 13 tacklers return from a solid 2016 defense.

·       Coaching staff in year #2 with a JUCO transfer QB who perfectly fits the spread option attack.

·       Despite a 4-8 2016 record, the Wave were only -277 net yards and outgained their foes in three losses including +60 yards at Houston.

Slightly Underrated

UCF

·       Soph QB Milton is undersized (5’11” and 170) but head coach Scott Frost super high on him saying he’ll flourish in his second year at the helm.

·       Speaking of second year, Frost and staff in oft-magical year #2.

·       Nine starters back on offense including 101 career starts.

·       Just 4 starters back on “D” but DL is excellent and AAC defensive player of the year LB Griffin is back with his amputated left hand.

Jibes with Public Perception

Cincinnati

·       The 2016 Bearkitties underperformed more than any team in the country (4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS) with an offense that averaged 19 points per game while being held to single digits four times.

·       Tuberville was justifiably axed and Luke Fickell takes over.

·       Only 11 starters back might be a blessing but the Wiz sees no reason to play or fade these guys.

Connecticut

·       At 14.8 points per game, the 2016 Connecticut “O” was even worse than Cinci’s.

·       Head coach Edsell returns at the helm and he blows wad.

·       Offense transitioning from plodders to a wide open passing game sans the personnel to make that change.

·       Spreads will be huge on a weekly basis and as vet Wiz followers know, he ain’t  a huge fan of playing games with 25+ lines.

Houston

·       Major Applewhite in year #1 as head coach but was Houston’s off coord the last two years so transition will be relatively smooth.

·       Year in and year out, the Cougars are schizo much like their namesakes in Pullman, so the Wiz won’t be pulling the trigger on or against this squad.